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标普连创新高,接下来还会涨吗?

标普连创新高,接下来还会涨吗?

Shawn Tully 2020年08月14日
很多华尔街人士相信,不久美股还将迎来更大涨幅。

8月12日,美股大盘股再次大涨,标普500指数在当日后市交易中再创历史新高,超过了此前创下的3386点的纪录,这也让很多华尔街人士相信,不久美股还将迎来更大涨幅。(随后标普500指数出现小幅回落,收于3380点,合计上涨1.40%)。

不过对严肃的分析型投资者来说,有一个问题是不得不考虑的——美股无视疫情影响逆势上涨,甚至已经涨到了历史新高。如果你在这种情况下买进,会不会影响未来10年的收益?

如果我告诉你,未来10年,标普500的年平均回报率最高才不过2.4%,你会怎么想?你大概不愿意相信,当然这也是可以理解的。你可能会说,我是一个无可救药的悲观主义者,根本看不到股市的“新常态”——大型科技公司的盈利能力已经上升到了一个新高度;美联储总是会救市的;美国还有几万亿美元正准备涌入股市。另外,虽然美国国债收益率走低了,但投资者们只会继续买下去,反正他们的钱也没有其他地方可以投。你可能经常听交易员和CNBC、福克斯商业频道的分析师们谈势头、谈技术面、谈投资者心理,如果你从他们那里没有听到类似的悲观言论,你很可能会认为我以上所说的都是扯淡。

但毫无疑问,你肯定同意,如果买一篮子大盘股,每年的收益却只有2.4%,这肯定是一笔不划算的投资。毕竟前10年,标普500的年收益率能达到14%左右,2.4%只是它的六分之一。毕竟光是房价、车价乃至一切物价平均每年都得上涨2%左右,你还得省钱给孩子攒教育基金、给自己攒养老钱。这样一算,勉强能跑赢通胀率的投资肯定是划不来的。

但如果你无视当前的炒作和喧嚣,而是看看历史上利润的增长率通常是多少,以及当历史上出现像这样的高估值低股息的情况以后都会发生什么,你就会明白,为什么2.4%确实是一个合理的预期。锐联资产管理公司(Research Affiliates)的首席投资官克里斯·布莱曼说:“你可以假设这个数字高出或低出一两个点,但这就是最可能的结果了。”锐联公司主要为嘉信理财和太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)等金融机构提供投资策略管理,它管理的共同基金和ETF基金总规模达1450亿美元。

以下是锐联公司对标普指数未来走势的看法。锐联的分析师在金融学术界浸淫极深。他们首先关注的是决定远期回报的三个因素——股息、收益增长,以及“估值”或者市盈率的变化。布莱曼指出,如果市盈率保持不变,那么可以计算得出,总收益将等于股息加上收益增长。

由于标普指数的价格上涨速度远远快于收益增长,股息率已经下降到了目前的1.9%,这还不到长期平均水平的一半,而且远远低于2015年底的2.3%的水平。那么第二个驱动因素,也就是利润增长,能多快地补充股息的微薄贡献?根据锐联预测,标普500的每股收益增长率将仅为每年3.3%。虽然这个速度显著低于过去30年的5%左右的水平,但这却是近130年以来的常态。布莱曼指出:“利润增长是均值回归的,如果它们长期高于正常水平,它们就会倾向于回归历史趋势。”

布莱曼补充道,每股收益的增长要比经济整体利润的增长慢得多,这里有一个基本原因。“这就像GDP和人均GDP的区别。人均GDP的增长要比GDP增长得慢,这是因为GPD的增长有一部分原因是由于人口的增长。”同理,每股收益的增长也比总体收益慢,因为新股票的增长速度快于总利润的增长。另外,新的公司还在不断挑战守成的公司,使得标普500指数中会有更多的股票分摊同样的销售额和利润。另外,未上市的新进者也会从守成型的上市公司手中攫取利润,这也限制了后者提高每股收益的速度。

现在让我们做一下加法。1.9%的股息率,加上3.3%的每股收益增长率,可得年回报率为5.2%。但现在还需要引入我们的第三个重要因素——估值。在理想的状态下,5.2%的回报率,需要标普500的市盈率一直保持在当前的高水平上。只有这样,标普500才能给出5%左右的回报率。

而在布莱曼看来,更有可能的情况是,未来10年,市盈率会从当前水平上回落,理由同上——随着时间的推移,一种重力将会拉动主导股市上涨的因素回归到历史正常水平。根据锐联计算,在3390点的历史高位上,标普500的市盈率已经达到30倍,这远远高出了130年来的历史基准(大约15%至20%之间)。布莱曼说:“我们认为,市盈率会下降一半,回归到长期水平,尽管现在离那个水平还有很远。”因此锐联认为,10年后,也就是到2030年年中的时候,标普500的市盈率大概会稳定在25倍左右,不过这仍然是一个很高的数值。

不断缩水的市盈率,将抵消每股收益3.3%的涨幅中的大部分,实际涨幅大约只会有股价的0.5%。所以综上所述,投资者将从股息中获利1.9%,从资本收益中仅获利0.5%,合计2.4%。

布莱曼表示,大多数华尔街人士都会质疑锐联的预测,指责它太过悲观,毕竟多年以来,利润的涨幅都比他预测的3.3%高了两三个百分点,而且这种轨迹看起来是能一直持续下去的。对此布莱曼解释道:“请记住,我们的预测并不是说每股收益会在很长时间内持平或下降,抵消多年来高于平均水平的增长。但这种情况以前确实发生过很多次,而且现在造成了额外的危险。”

布莱曼指出:“劳动力和资本获得经济产出的比例,并非出于一种自然力量,而是出于一种社会选择。”他表示,美国的政治气候通常对大型的高利润企业很不友好,而是更注重奖励工人,特别是那些工资涨幅低于利润涨幅的企业工人。“民主党的一些声音已经注意到,企业利润的增长远远快于经济的增长,尤其是工资的增长,他们打算改变这种状况。”另外,现在越来越少的科技巨头已经占据了越来越多的收入比例,他们也成了共和党民粹势力口诛笔伐的主要目标。保守派的批评人士指责亚马逊、苹果和Facebook等科技巨头涉嫌利用垄断力量欺骗消费者。美国两党在利润问题上的分歧,对标普500企业的回报率来说,很可能是一个不祥之兆。

我们对未来的预期之所以如此悲观,恰恰是因为美股创纪录的巨幅上涨,虽然它最近让各路分析师、专家和市场分析师欣喜若狂。然而要想让投资者像前几年那样从股市 上获得大量回报,只有一条路才能做到——股价来一次大跌,一跌跌到解放前,接下来就苦尽甘来了。)(财富中文网)

译者:Min

8月12日,美股大盘股再次大涨,标普500指数在当日后市交易中再创历史新高,超过了此前创下的3386点的纪录,这也让很多华尔街人士相信,不久美股还将迎来更大涨幅。(随后标普500指数出现小幅回落,收于3380点,合计上涨1.40%)。

不过对严肃的分析型投资者来说,有一个问题是不得不考虑的——美股无视疫情影响逆势上涨,甚至已经涨到了历史新高。如果你在这种情况下买进,会不会影响未来10年的收益?

如果我告诉你,未来10年,标普500的年平均回报率最高才不过2.4%,你会怎么想?你大概不愿意相信,当然这也是可以理解的。你可能会说,我是一个无可救药的悲观主义者,根本看不到股市的“新常态”——大型科技公司的盈利能力已经上升到了一个新高度;美联储总是会救市的;美国还有几万亿美元正准备涌入股市。另外,虽然美国国债收益率走低了,但投资者们只会继续买下去,反正他们的钱也没有其他地方可以投。你可能经常听交易员和CNBC、福克斯商业频道的分析师们谈势头、谈技术面、谈投资者心理,如果你从他们那里没有听到类似的悲观言论,你很可能会认为我以上所说的都是扯淡。

但毫无疑问,你肯定同意,如果买一篮子大盘股,每年的收益却只有2.4%,这肯定是一笔不划算的投资。毕竟前10年,标普500的年收益率能达到14%左右,2.4%只是它的六分之一。毕竟光是房价、车价乃至一切物价平均每年都得上涨2%左右,你还得省钱给孩子攒教育基金、给自己攒养老钱。这样一算,勉强能跑赢通胀率的投资肯定是划不来的。

但如果你无视当前的炒作和喧嚣,而是看看历史上利润的增长率通常是多少,以及当历史上出现像这样的高估值低股息的情况以后都会发生什么,你就会明白,为什么2.4%确实是一个合理的预期。锐联资产管理公司(Research Affiliates)的首席投资官克里斯·布莱曼说:“你可以假设这个数字高出或低出一两个点,但这就是最可能的结果了。”锐联公司主要为嘉信理财和太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)等金融机构提供投资策略管理,它管理的共同基金和ETF基金总规模达1450亿美元。

以下是锐联公司对标普指数未来走势的看法。锐联的分析师在金融学术界浸淫极深。他们首先关注的是决定远期回报的三个因素——股息、收益增长,以及“估值”或者市盈率的变化。布莱曼指出,如果市盈率保持不变,那么可以计算得出,总收益将等于股息加上收益增长。

由于标普指数的价格上涨速度远远快于收益增长,股息率已经下降到了目前的1.9%,这还不到长期平均水平的一半,而且远远低于2015年底的2.3%的水平。那么第二个驱动因素,也就是利润增长,能多快地补充股息的微薄贡献?根据锐联预测,标普500的每股收益增长率将仅为每年3.3%。虽然这个速度显著低于过去30年的5%左右的水平,但这却是近130年以来的常态。布莱曼指出:“利润增长是均值回归的,如果它们长期高于正常水平,它们就会倾向于回归历史趋势。”

布莱曼补充道,每股收益的增长要比经济整体利润的增长慢得多,这里有一个基本原因。“这就像GDP和人均GDP的区别。人均GDP的增长要比GDP增长得慢,这是因为GPD的增长有一部分原因是由于人口的增长。”同理,每股收益的增长也比总体收益慢,因为新股票的增长速度快于总利润的增长。另外,新的公司还在不断挑战守成的公司,使得标普500指数中会有更多的股票分摊同样的销售额和利润。另外,未上市的新进者也会从守成型的上市公司手中攫取利润,这也限制了后者提高每股收益的速度。

现在让我们做一下加法。1.9%的股息率,加上3.3%的每股收益增长率,可得年回报率为5.2%。但现在还需要引入我们的第三个重要因素——估值。在理想的状态下,5.2%的回报率,需要标普500的市盈率一直保持在当前的高水平上。只有这样,标普500才能给出5%左右的回报率。

而在布莱曼看来,更有可能的情况是,未来10年,市盈率会从当前水平上回落,理由同上——随着时间的推移,一种重力将会拉动主导股市上涨的因素回归到历史正常水平。根据锐联计算,在3390点的历史高位上,标普500的市盈率已经达到30倍,这远远高出了130年来的历史基准(大约15%至20%之间)。布莱曼说:“我们认为,市盈率会下降一半,回归到长期水平,尽管现在离那个水平还有很远。”因此锐联认为,10年后,也就是到2030年年中的时候,标普500的市盈率大概会稳定在25倍左右,不过这仍然是一个很高的数值。

不断缩水的市盈率,将抵消每股收益3.3%的涨幅中的大部分,实际涨幅大约只会有股价的0.5%。所以综上所述,投资者将从股息中获利1.9%,从资本收益中仅获利0.5%,合计2.4%。

布莱曼表示,大多数华尔街人士都会质疑锐联的预测,指责它太过悲观,毕竟多年以来,利润的涨幅都比他预测的3.3%高了两三个百分点,而且这种轨迹看起来是能一直持续下去的。对此布莱曼解释道:“请记住,我们的预测并不是说每股收益会在很长时间内持平或下降,抵消多年来高于平均水平的增长。但这种情况以前确实发生过很多次,而且现在造成了额外的危险。”

布莱曼指出:“劳动力和资本获得经济产出的比例,并非出于一种自然力量,而是出于一种社会选择。”他表示,美国的政治气候通常对大型的高利润企业很不友好,而是更注重奖励工人,特别是那些工资涨幅低于利润涨幅的企业工人。“民主党的一些声音已经注意到,企业利润的增长远远快于经济的增长,尤其是工资的增长,他们打算改变这种状况。”另外,现在越来越少的科技巨头已经占据了越来越多的收入比例,他们也成了共和党民粹势力口诛笔伐的主要目标。保守派的批评人士指责亚马逊、苹果和Facebook等科技巨头涉嫌利用垄断力量欺骗消费者。美国两党在利润问题上的分歧,对标普500企业的回报率来说,很可能是一个不祥之兆。

我们对未来的预期之所以如此悲观,恰恰是因为美股创纪录的巨幅上涨,虽然它最近让各路分析师、专家和市场分析师欣喜若狂。然而要想让投资者像前几年那样从股市 上获得大量回报,只有一条路才能做到——股价来一次大跌,一跌跌到解放前,接下来就苦尽甘来了。)(财富中文网)

译者:Min

Big cap stocks just scored another triumph when the S&P 500 hit an all-time record in late afternoon trading on August 12, passing the previous high of 3386 and inspiring the Wall Street bulls to forecast more great gains ahead. (The index then pulled back slightly to close up 1.40% at 3380).

But here's the question for serious, analytical investors: How do you handicap what you'll reap over the next decade if you buy in today, at these newly-notched, pandemic-defying, record high prices?

What would you think if I told you that the best bet is an annual return for the S&P of 2.4%? You can be excused for not wanting to believe it. You might brand me a hopeless naysayer who's clueless to the new market realities–– that Big Tech has raised profitability to a new plateau, that the Fed will always ride to the rescue, that trillions of cash sits on the sidelines poised to jump into stocks, or that, hey, with Treasury yields in the dumps, investors will just keep buying 'cause they have no where else to go. You'll wonder if such a bleak forecast can possibly make sense, when you haven't heard anything remotely this depressing from the traders and market strategists on CNBC and Fox Business who report from the trenches on every shift in momentum, technicals and sentiment, and mostly like what they see.

But you'd doubtless agree that buying a basket of big caps likely to give you 2.4% a year is a lousy investment. That's one-sixth of the annual return of around 14% reaped over the past ten years. After all, the price of everything you pay for from cars to PCs to rent is bound rises at around 2%, and as for a building college funds for the kids and a fat nest egg for retirement, a portfolio that barely tops inflation won't come close to delivering what you'll need.

But if you ignore the current fog of hype and momentum, and focus on what history tells us about how fast profits normally grow, and what follows when valuations are this lofty and dividends this puny, you'll see why 2.4% is indeed a reasonable forecast. "You can make assumptions that make that number a couple of points higher or a couple of points lower, but starting at these prices, that's the most likely outcome," says Chris Brightman, chief investment officer at Research Affiliates, a firm that oversees strategies for $145 billion in mutual funds and ETFs, for firms including Charles Schwab and Pimco.

Here's how Research Affiliates, whose analysts hold strong grounding in academic finance, views the S&P's future trajectory. They start with the three components that determine future returns: the dividend yield, the growth in earnings, and the change, if any, in the "valuation," or price-to-earnings multiple. As Brightman notes, if the P/E remains constant, the math dictates that the total gain will equal the dividend yield plus the growth in earnings.

Because the S&P prices have risen much faster than earnings, the dividend yield has fallen to a current 1.9%. That's less than half the long-term average, and well below the 2.3% as recently as late 2015. How fast can the second driver, profit growth, wax to compensate for the slender contribution from dividends? Research Affiliates predicts that EPS will expand at just 3.3% a year. Though that's a lot lower the the mid-single digit performance of the past three decades, it's the norm over the past 130 years. "Profits growth is mean-reverting," says Brightman. "When they've been higher than the norm for a long period, they tend to go back closer to the historic trend."

He adds that earnings-per-share grow much more slowly than that overall profits in the economy for a basic reason. "It's like GPD versus GDP per capita," he says. "GDP per person grows more slowly than GDP. That's because part of GDP growth is growth in the population." Likewise, EPS trails overall earnings because new shares grow faster than total profits. New companies are constantly challenging the incumbents, adding to the shares in the S&P that are divvying up same sales and profits. Or, private newcomers grab earnings from the entrenched, publicly-traded players, restraining how fast they can lift their EPS.

Let's add it up. A dividend yield of 1.9% plus EPS growth of 3.3% gives an annual return of 5.2%. But embedded in that forecast is an important assumption regarding our third driver, valuation. A best-case, 5.2% return mandates that today's elevated P/E keep hovering at the same, rarefied heights. Only then will the S&P provide that mid-single digit return.

For Brightman, it's much more probable that the current P/E retreats over the next decade, for the same reason jack-rabbit earnings will slow: Over time, a kind of gravitational force pushes the factors governing stock market gains back towards their historic norms. At the record close of 3390 (ck), Research Affiliates puts the S&P 500's P/E at 30. That's far above the 130 year benchmark in the mid-to-high teens. "We assume that the multiple will go halfway back to its long-term level, though far from all the way back," says Brightman. Hence, Research Affiliates posits that the S&P 500's P/E a decade from now, in mid-2030, will settle at around 25, still a high number.

That shrinking multiple will erase most of increases in EPS of 3.3% a year, leaving only tiny annual gains of around .5% in the share price. So all told, investors would reap 1.9% from dividends, and just half a point from capital gains, for a total of our 2.4%.

Brightman adds that most on Wall Street will dispute Research Affiliates' forecast as far too downbeat, in part because profits have been expanding two to three points faster than his 3.3% a year for so many years the trajectory looks permanent. "Keep in mind," he explains, "that we're not predicting that earnings-per-share will go flat or fall for a long time to compensate for so many years of above average growth. But that's happened many times before, and poses an additional danger now."

"The share of the economic output provided to labor and capital is not a force of nature it's a social choice," notes Brightman. The political climate, he adds, is unusually hostile towards big profit makers, and shifting towards better rewarding workers who've seen their pay rise far more slowly than profits. "A vocal base of the Democratic Party has noticed that profits have grown much faster than the economy and especially wages, and mean to change that," he says. What's more, an increasingly narrow group of tech giants now account for a giant share of earnings, and they're prime targets for the populist wing of the Republican Party. Conservative critics are blasting the likes of Amazon, Apple and Facebook for allegedly using monopoly power to bilk consumers. That bi-partisan war on profits could bode ill for returns come.

The dynamic that's made the future look so barren is the giant, record-smashing run-up, precisely what's now winning kudos from analysts, pundits and market strategists. Only one journey will enable today's buyers to garner the kind of gains investors have reaped over the past few years: A steep fall in prices, in a round-trip back to near the levels where all the fun began.

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